Datar–Mathews method for real option valuation

Datar–Mathews method for real option valuation

The Datar–Mathews Method (DM Method) is a method for real options valuation. The method provides an easy way to determine the real option value of a project simply by using the average of positive outcomes for the project. The method can be understood as an extension of the net present value (NPV) multi-scenario Monte Carlo model with an adjustment for risk aversion and economic decision-making. The method uses information that arises naturally in a standard discounted cash flow (DCF), or NPV, project financial valuation. It was created in 2000 by Vinay Datar, professor at Seattle University; and Scott H. Mathews, Technical Fellow at The Boeing Company.

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encenter
Caption
enFig. 2A Net profit present-value distribution
enFig. 2B Rational decision distribution
enFig. 2C Payoff distribution and option value
Comment
enThe Datar–Mathews Method (DM Method) is a method for real options valuation. The method provides an easy way to determine the real option value of a project simply by using the average of positive outcomes for the project. The method can be understood as an extension of the net present value (NPV) multi-scenario Monte Carlo model with an adjustment for risk aversion and economic decision-making. The method uses information that arises naturally in a standard discounted cash flow (DCF), or NPV, project financial valuation. It was created in 2000 by Vinay Datar, professor at Seattle University; and Scott H. Mathews, Technical Fellow at The Boeing Company.
Depiction
Datar Mathews Real Option Method Wikipedia Fig 1 Typical Project Cash Flow with Uncertainty.jpg
Datar Mathews Real Option Method Wikipedia Fig 2A Net Profit Present Value Distribution.jpg
Datar Mathews Real Option Method Wikipedia Fig 2B Rational Decision Distribution.jpg
Datar Mathews Real Option Method Wikipedia Fig 2C Payoff Distribution and Option Value.jpg
Demand Price and Cost Curves.jpg
Differentiated Market.png
Fig. 4 Concept of conditional probability distribution and mean of tail.png
Fig. 5 Time differentiated discounting appears to shift X relative to S.png
Fig. 7 Triangular conditional probability distribution.png
Fig 3 Comparison of Black Scholes and Datar-Mathews frameworks.png
Low probability, high value outcomes.jpg
Operating Profits Graph.jpg
Optimal Ranges to Maximize Profitability.jpg
Option value v S0-X0 - UR constant.png
Range Option showing triangular distribution V2.png
Ratio of areas is proportional to the probability.png
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Has abstract
enThe Datar–Mathews Method (DM Method) is a method for real options valuation. The method provides an easy way to determine the real option value of a project simply by using the average of positive outcomes for the project. The method can be understood as an extension of the net present value (NPV) multi-scenario Monte Carlo model with an adjustment for risk aversion and economic decision-making. The method uses information that arises naturally in a standard discounted cash flow (DCF), or NPV, project financial valuation. It was created in 2000 by Vinay Datar, professor at Seattle University; and Scott H. Mathews, Technical Fellow at The Boeing Company.
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Method
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enDatar_Mathews_Real_Option_Method_Wikipedia_Fig_2A_Net_Profit_Present_Value_Distribution.jpg
enDatar_Mathews_Real_Option_Method_Wikipedia_Fig_2B_Rational_Decision_Distribution.jpg
enDatar_Mathews_Real_Option_Method_Wikipedia_Fig_2C_Payoff_Distribution_and_Option_Value.jpg
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Datar–Mathews method for real option valuation
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enDatar–Mathews method for real option valuation
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Advances in Decision Sciences
Airfare
Ambiguity aversion
Behavioral sciences
Beta distribution
Bias
Bias blind spot
Binomial options pricing model
Black-Scholes
Black–Scholes
Black–Scholes model
Boeing Technical Fellowship
Category:Financial models
Category:Monte Carlo methods in finance
Category:Real options
Cognitive bias
Compound option
Conditional expectation
Conditional probability distribution
Cost of goods sold
Cumulative distribution function
Daniel Kahneman
Decision tree
Demand
Demand curve
Discounted cash flow
Expected value
Experience curve effects
File:Datar Mathews Real Option Method Wikipedia Fig 1 Typical Project Cash Flow with Uncertainty.jpg
File:Demand Price and Cost Curves.jpg
File:Differentiated Market.png
File:Fig. 4 Concept of conditional probability distribution and mean of tail.png
File:Fig. 5 Time differentiated discounting appears to shift X relative to S.png
File:Fig. 7 Triangular conditional probability distribution.png
File:Fig 3 Comparison of Black Scholes and Datar-Mathews frameworks.png
File:Low probability, high value outcomes.jpg
File:Operating Profits Graph.jpg
File:Optimal Ranges to Maximize Profitability.jpg
File:Option value v S0-X0 - UR constant.png
File:Range Option showing triangular distribution V2.png
File:Ratio of areas is proportional to the probability.png
Fundamental attribution error
Fuzzy logic
Fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation
Guesstimate
Innovation
Introspection illusion
Lappeenranta University of Technology
Law of demand
List of probability distributions
Lognormal distribution
Log-normal distribution
Loss aversion
Minimum acceptable rate of return
Monte Carlo methods for option pricing
Monte Carlo methods in finance
Monte Carlo model
Monte-Carlo simulation
Naïve realism (psychology)
Net present value
Operating profit
Present value
Probability distribution
Product differentiation
Proportionality (mathematics)
Prospect theory
Random variable
Ratio
Rationality
Real options valuation
Regret (decision theory)
Required rate of return
Risk-averse
Risk aversion
Risk aversion (psychology)
Risk-neutral
Sampling (statistics)
Seattle University
Standard normal distribution
Standard normal table
Strike price
The Boeing Company
Three-point estimation
Triangular distribution
Truncated distribution
Uniform distribution (continuous)
Volatility (finance)
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Category:Financial models
Category:Monte Carlo methods in finance
Category:Real options
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